New Energy Heavy Truck Development: It Still Takes Time, And Diesel Heavy Trucks Still Occupy A Dominant Position

New energy heavy truck development: it still takes time, and diesel heavy trucks still occupy a dominant position

With the proposal of China's dual-carbon goal, the development of new energy vehicles has been highly valued and supported by the country. New energy vehicles can not only reduce the dependence on oil resources, but also reduce the pollution of exhaust emissions to the environment. According to the power type, new energy vehicles can be divided into pure electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, etc. In the field of light passenger vehicles, new energy vehicles have made remarkable progress, but in the field of heavy trucks, the development of new energy vehicles still faces many challenges. According to the data of Shangpu Consulting Group, in 2022, China's new energy heavy truck production and sales were 16,000 and 15,000, respectively, an increase of 30.1% and 28.8%, accounting for 0.9% and 0.9% of the total production and sales of heavy trucks, respectively. In the first half of 2023, the production and sales of new energy heavy trucks in China were 8,000 and 7,000, respectively, an increase of 14.3% and 16.7%, accounting for 1.2% and 1.1% of the total production and sales of heavy trucks, respectively. It can be seen from these data that the market size of new energy heavy trucks is still small, and the growth rate has slowed down, and it is still at a disadvantage compared with traditional diesel heavy trucks.

The reason why new energy heavy trucks are difficult to make a breakthrough in the field of heavy trucks is mainly due to the following reasons: First, technical problems, new energy heavy trucks to meet the high load, long mileage, high-speed and other requirements of heavy trucks, need to solve the capacity, life, safety and other problems of power batteries, as well as the cost, efficiency, stability and other problems of fuel cells; Second, the lack of infrastructure, new energy heavy trucks to achieve large-scale promotion, need to build a complete charging station, hydrogen stations and other supporting facilities, but the current investment and construction in this area is far from enough; Third, the policy support is not enough, new energy heavy trucks relative to light passenger vehicles, received less policy support and subsidies, and with the gradual decline of the national subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the market competitiveness of new energy heavy trucks will decline; Fourth, low user recognition, new energy heavy trucks relative to diesel heavy trucks, there is still a certain gap in performance, cost, endurance and other aspects of the user's acceptance of new energy heavy trucks is not high, especially in some remote areas and traditional industries.

Shang Pu Consulting believes that although new energy heavy trucks are facing many difficulties and challenges, they also have certain development opportunities and advantages. First, in line with the national strategic direction, the new energy heavy truck can effectively reduce carbon emissions and pollutant emissions, which is conducive to the realization of China's double carbon goal and green development concept; Second, technological innovation continues to break through, with the progress and innovation of science and technology, the technical level of new energy heavy trucks will continue to improve, and core technologies such as power batteries and fuel cells will gradually mature and popularize; Third, the infrastructure is gradually improved, with the support and investment of the national and local governments in the construction of new energy vehicle infrastructure, charging stations, hydrogen refueling stations and other supporting facilities will gradually cover all parts of the country; With the development and transformation of the logistics and transportation industry, users' demand for heavy trucks will be more diversified and personalized, and new energy heavy trucks will have the opportunity to open up some specific market segments.

Shanpu Consulting expects that by 2025, China's new energy heavy truck production and sales will reach about 100,000 units, accounting for about 5% of the country's total heavy truck production and sales, of which pure electric heavy trucks will occupy the dominant position, fuel cell heavy trucks will gradually rise. However, in the long run, new energy heavy trucks are still difficult to completely replace diesel heavy trucks, and diesel heavy trucks will still occupy the mainstream position in the heavy truck market. Therefore, the competition and synergy between new energy heavy trucks and diesel heavy trucks will be an important trend in the future heavy truck industry.